By Chris Dawson & Elizabeth Machula Dec 09, 2016

Breaking Records

The Supply Demand ratio has broken out to record levels, we've never seen this before. There are too few condos available for sale and lots of Buyers trying to secure a unit. This has pushed the market further into Seller's territory than we've ever seen.

Most Novembers will have about 1000 suites for sale. This November we had only 496 available for sale, so the inventory is half of what we typically see.

Most Novembers will have about 300 condos sell. This November we had 467 sell, so the number of sales was up about 50% more than typical.

The above numbers show a shortage of condos for sale and a very large number of buyers active. This can only result in one thing, higher prices. November's median price was the highest we've seen at $455,500. With the supply and demand ratio this high, we can only expect to see higher prices to come.

As the year is almost over, let's take a look at some key indicators for November 2016 vs November 2015:

'416' Detached Home Price Increase: 32.3%
'905' Detached Home Price Increase: 25.5%
'416' Condo Price Increase: 13.5%
'905' Condo Price Increase: 18.9% 

Most people don't have their real estate paid off, so their actual rate of return is multiples higher... amazing. Toronto appears to be in a league of its own. Not just looking at this past year, but prices have been quite steadily increasing since 1996. Even 2008 saw a slight increase in prices for the overall market which is remarkable considering what happened to the rest of the world.

What is setting us apart? Many factors.

A) Geography. The lake removes 50% of land area which prevents sprawl. The Green Belt restricts development to the North. Limited infrastructure makes commuting so difficult that premiums are paid to live closer to downtown. Toronto's urban plan focuses on high density. A city like Atlanta seems to have unlimited urban sprawl which contributes to stagnant prices.
B) Economy. It's believed the single most important factor for long term price appreciation is growing jobs in a city. Many small city's real estate prices are decimated when their largest employer closes. As companies grow and start-ups choose Toronto, demand for housing increases real estate prices.
C) Population. By 2041, Toronto's population is expected to double. Where are all these people going to live? Condos, stacked townhomes, small footprints and high prices.
D) Interest Rates. Low interest rates for the past 15 years have no doubt impacted prices and they're expected to stay for significantly longer.

 

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