It’s really hard to choose a condo or house that’s going to appreciate better than the market average. Those who proudly boast that they have done so are much more likely to have been lucky than smart. To beat the average, something significant has to change in your neighbourhood or building. Examples might be if they announced a new subway or Go train stop to be built within walking distance, or perhaps a dramatic reduction in condo fees, but buying ahead of these decisions is all but impossible.

I do believe the writing is on the wall for one small neighbourhood though and it’s still possible to take advantage of the opportunity. What if a neighbourhood’s value has been suppressed because of an industrial odour and there are signs that company may be moving shop?

I’m referring to the Abattoir in the small Niagara neighbourhood of King St W. Here’s the facts:

- The Abattoir began operating in 1914 and can process 6,000 pigs per day.
- Employs about 700 people.
- The smell is of manure from the pig barn which has to have air passing through.
- Operating in the downtown core requires a flow of pig delivery and shipping trucks which is a challenge for the neighbourhood.
- Neighbours feel that the smell is the strongest to the west of the plant.

Here are some images of the location of the abattoir.

As you can see, it’s an irregular piece of land with the City owning the carved out portion on Wellington St W. I believe the city owned portion is partly used to store salt/sand in a silo. Very expensive real estate used for this purpose. According to Geowarehouse, the abattoir footprint is 19,167 square meters. The City portion is 16,479 square meters. Developers are very interested in this land. If the abattoir moved its operations, and the City decided to sell that piece of land… that would be about 35,646 square meters or about 8.8 acres.

The main issue for residents is the manure smell but don’t let anyone exaggerate the problem. Does it smell? Sure, but it’s not constant and it’s most noticeable in the extreme heat. The impact on the daily lives of those living in the area (and moving into the area in droves) is minimal. This doesn’t just affect this pocket and on some days it can also be noticed in Liberty Village or Queen St W. Is it stopping development? Absolutely not. A few days with the odour is manageable for a great neighbourhood that is only set to become more desirable as some of the best nightlife, entertainment, restaurants and shopping moves into the area.

Despite most neighbour’s wishes that the abattoir would move to a more rural area, there is nothing that can force this to happen. To be fair, the abattoir has been there long before any current resident, it has made efforts to reduce odours, limits truck deliveries between certain hours and it employs 700 people. Toronto’s nickname “Hogtown” does stem from its heritage of a pig processing center. Historically, this area was much more industrial than it is today… but times have changed. With so many people living, and wanting to move to this pocket, I belong to the crowd that believes the neighbourhood would be better if the abattoir moved.

The smell would be gone, enough land would be available for a quality development, local businesses would benefit, nearby real estate owners would see their values increase and that’s the whole point of this article. I believe that if the abattoir moved, the properties that are currently suppressed in value would see an immediate gain… which would push local appreciation above the market average.

So why would the abattoir decide to move? The price they would get for the land would very likely be adequate to relocate and build a state of the art facility in a more rural environment. They would gain Goodwill from local residents and have more freedom with their operations and shipping. In fact, we’re seeing signs that perhaps this process has already started as the abattoir has asked the city to convert its zoning from industrial to mixed use. This is a strong signal that it is planning a future sale. Some agents estimate the value of local properties is reduced 15-20% because of the odour issue so I think that it’s possible to see that much increase in affected homes and condos.

When will we see this happen? Realistically, I think it will be in 5 years or so. If you want a strong real estate investment, I would suggest buying a big enough property in this area that can you live there throughout this gentrification. An example of a Loft for sale directly north of the abattoir would be 833 King St West which I think will benefit from the changes to come.